The Maturation of Netflix: Forecasts & Analysis


When Netflix first launched in 1998 as an innovative DVD-by-mail subscription service it would have been difficult to imagine that 15 years later, during the first half of 2013, it would pass HBO to become the largest premium TV/movie subscription service in the United States with 30 million streaming-only subscribers, as well as having a rapidly growing international streaming business. This is made even more remarkable by the fact that Netflix launched its Internet streaming service only six years ago, in 2007.

With Netflix having become a major player in the US TV/movie content business—and in an astonishingly short time—it is important to understand in detail the levels and trends of its subscriber totals as well as its domestic streaming usage.

This report will:

  • Provide a brief timeline of Netflix’s evolution;
  • Review historical streaming subscription levels from Q3-11 to Q2-13;
  • Compare Netflix subscription counts with leading premium TV networks HBO, Showtime, and Starz, as well as with MVPD VOD;
  • Present estimates of Netflix US and international quarterly streaming usage for the same period both on a per-subscription basis and in total;
  • Forecast Netflix US streaming subscriptions and use from 2012 to 2022 and compare to estimated 2012 annual US TV viewing; and
  • Suggest competitive strategies regarding Netflix for TV incumbent networks and operators, as well as OTT native firms.

For further information or questions, please contact Laura Allen Phillips.