July 20, 2021

The Apple of Roger Goodells’ Eye

Apple has been rumored, or more likely expected, to change television for at least the last decade. Since Steve Jobs famously remarked “I finally cracked it” almost one decade ago in October 2011, the world has been waiting to see what “it” is and how this plays out.

In July 2021, it is rumored that Apple will purchase rights to one of live television’s last marquee properties, NFL Sunday Ticket.

Is Apple’s shopping spree all it is cracked up to be?

Sitting On The Sidelines
Among the biggest turning points in professional football was Drew Bledsoe taking a hard hit from New York Jet Mo Lewis which forced him to leave a Patriots game in the second week of the 2001 NFL season. This allowed 6th-round draft pick Tom Brady into the game; 20 years later Tom Brady has 10 Super Bowl appearances, and seven wins. Also, on the sidelines in 2001 was what is now the world’s most valuable company, at least at the time of writing, Apple Computer. In May of that year, Steve Jobs announced that Apple would be opening Apple Stores across America, with its first to open in McLean Virginia. Today, there are over 500 Apple Stores – retail centers that are among the most profitable stores per-square-foot in the world. Apple opened its newest store in Los Angeles on Broadway in the spectacularly renovated Tower theater building.

It is surprising, however, that Apple is still on the sidelines with respect to TV, making the occasional first down, but no real red-zone conversions.

Reaching For The Forbidden Fruit
Arguably the most important Hollywood event of the year is the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference, which has been ongoing each July since 1983. Schmoozing is done, deals are discussed, billionaires debate the effects of G-force on their skin, all while enjoying the great outdoors. In the 2021 version of Summer Camp for Billionaires (after a one-year COVID-19 hiatus), it was widely reported that the NFL reached out to Apple about NFL Sunday Ticket. One can imagine Roger Goodell maneuvering his way around the tennis court to get close to Tim Cook, if only to float this opportunity.

However, it is unlikely this was the first shot of Goodell’s arrow at the Apple. A little over one year ago, Cook hired Jim DeLorenzo away from Amazon to lead its sports division for Apple TV. Amazon, of course, made headlines in 2016 with the acquisition of non-exclusive streaming rights for 10 NFL broadcasts in the 2017 season.

The Roots Of NFL Sunday Ticket
Launched in 1994, NFL Sunday Ticket was broadcast on DirecTV as a way to get out of local-market games to its subscribers. DirecTV pays roughly $1.5 billion each year for these rights and has been a key part of the NFL marketing for many years. In fact, AT&T had given itself an out on the acquisition if DirecTV lost the Sunday Ticket deal.

Banished From Eden
With its purchase of DirecTV in 2015 for $48.5 billion, AT&T had high hopes that the NFL would help create a super bundle of AT&T products and drive future growth. At the time of the acquisition, DirecTV was gaining subscriptions, adding 214,000 in Q4, with nearly 20-million paying subscribers in all. The acquisition was largely intended to offset AT&T U-verse declines. However, by 2019 AT&T was quietly allowing non-subscribers to stream Sunday Ticket, and by 2021 it had entered a deal to spin off DirecTV to private equity firm TPG for just over $16 billion, a staggering fumble of around $30 billion of enterprise value. Over the next six years, DirecTV lost almost seven million subs, over three million in 2020 alone. Clearly, NFL Sunday Ticket was no longer the Hail-Mary pass it once was.

Media As A Loss Leader Before Amazon

It is important to remember what buying these rights did for Rupert Murdoch’s Fox. In December 1993, Murdoch wrote a check for $1.3 billion to the NFL for rights to air games on Fox. Murdoch had twice tried to buy rights and been rebuffed or used as leverage against the legacy networks.

Additionally, at the time, Fox was not respected as a serious network, derisively called “the coat-hanger network.” Other than the Simpsons and the X-Files, Fox had little A-level content. However, the key learning from Fox’s bet on the NFL was not that it would make money on the rights, but that the network would make money on the business around those rights.

If this sounds similar to Jeff Bezos’s comment “When we win a Golden Globe, it helps us sell more shoes.

“A” Is Also For Alphabet
AllThingsD reported back in August 2013 that YouTube had approached the NFL about broadcasting NFL on YouTube. This coincided with the launching of Chromecast (which should have been Roku but wasn’t) and the NFL would have been great content to push sales of the streaming stick. Even at that time, it was felt that “if Apple was serious about television, adding NFL is a no-brainer.” Apparently, this was a brainer, and the NFL was not added to Apple’s TV offerings. Apple was airing other major sports on Apple TV, but the marquee product, NFL, was not on the marquee streaming device (Apple TV) at that time.

YouTube pursued a different path and chose America’s favorite pastime. YouTube and MLB recently announced a renewal of their global pact for live games, the third season of this alliance.

But Wait, There Is A Mouse (And Minion, Rocket Ship, And An Ex-GF)
Even before Billionaire’s summer camp, NFL Sunday Ticket was being considered by other suitors. Bob Chapek, CEO of the Walt Disney Company, said in May that Disney was considering licensing NFL Sunday Ticket. Chapek did qualify the interest, stating that it needs to “add shareholder value.” In August, ESPN+ will raise its monthly prices to $6.99 per month, right before pro football starts in the fall.

Additional suitors are all the usual suspects. Comcast needs to bolster Peacock with the Olympics looking dicey due to CV19 issues (no spectators, muted medal celebrations, etc.). However, NBCUniversal has an expanded client list (20% higher than the Rio games) and expects to ultimately surpass Rio’s $1.25B in ad sales. Should the viewers not show up, Comcast will be stuck with an epic amount of “make-dos” to their advertisers, time will tell.

Other interested parties may include Amazon which could expand its exclusive Thursday Night Football rights, or even DirecTV which could potentially retain broadcast rights, since streaming rights could be sold separately.

Should Tim Take A Bite?
Steve Jobs, with his bold personality, was not one to sit on the sidelines. Tim Cook, a more reserved risk taker, has been called better at running Apple than his predecessor. Apple was the world’s first trillion-dollar company (whereas when Jobs passed the split adjusted value was around $300B). Now Apple is a $2-trillion company, still without the big success (or simple respect) in entertainment that peers such as Amazon and Netflix enjoy.

Acquiring NFL Sunday Ticket would bring live viewers to Apple TV+ and increase engagement with the Apple brand. Already under fire from the government over potential monopoly issues surrounding fees charged in the app store, Apple may need a new way to have consumers engage with its devices should any government ruling not go in its favor. Additionally, the fight over privacy (Apple touting its opt-in strategy vs. others opt-out) could be won by Apple, thus gaining more direct consumer relationships with NFL Sunday Ticket, without the need to track data as competitors do.

Keeping Up With The Bezo-es
Although in the running for NFL football rights, in the competition for “best in space” bragging rights, Apple remains sidelined. Cook is letting the other three (Branson, Bezos, and Musk), battle over who rules the universe while focused on running Apple down here on the third rock from the sun.

The investment other tech firms (Amazon, Twitter, and YouTube, in particular) have put into licensing live sports is also unlikely to force Apple into a move for which it is unprepared.

Parting Thoughts
Apple hiring DeLorenzo away from Amazon signifies a well-conceived strategy by Cook regarding licensing sports for streaming. It will be interesting to see the jockeying over these rights in the next few months before the DirecTV contract runs out.

Stick with TDG to Stay in front of the Curve.

Douglas Montgomery is a 15+ year veteran of the Entertainment Business. His time with Warner Bros. was spent analyzing, and living the incredible changes from the VHS era, to DVD and finally Streaming.

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